Trump's Honeymoon: Did He Get A Post-Election Grace Period?

The honeymoon period is a term used to describe a period of popularity enjoyed by a newly elected leader, usually a president. Typically, presidents experience elevated approval ratings in their first few months in office before political gravity takes hold and their approval ratings fall. However, former US President Donald Trump's time in office was characterized by unprecedented polarization, and he faced conflict and criticism from the moment he was elected. While Trump's approval rating upon taking office reached a new high for him at around 50%, his honeymoon phase paled in comparison to modern presidents, and it appears to have been short-lived, with his approval ratings slipping soon after.

Trump's approval ratings

Typically, presidents of the United States enjoy a honeymoon period, a time of elevated approval ratings right after taking office. However, Donald Trump's approval ratings upon taking office were only around 50%, which was lower than that of his predecessors. By some definitions, this means that Trump never had a honeymoon period.

Trump's low approval ratings can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, Trump won the electoral votes but lost the popular vote, which put him at a disadvantage and diminished his honeymoon period. Secondly, there was a refusal by the left to accept the legitimacy of his victory, with many demonstrators chanting "not my president". Thirdly, Trump's own instincts and inclinations, such as his hyperactivity and thirst for attention, led to him continuously dominating the news cycle, not always to his benefit. For example, his mocking of Arnold Schwarzenegger for bad "Celebrity Apprentice" ratings made Trump look small and Arnold almost sympathetic.

Polarisation in Congress

The polarisation trend is evident in both the House and the Senate, despite their institutional differences. Research suggests that broader events and ideas outside of Congress, such as economic crises and wars, are the primary drivers of polarisation. For example, the passage of civil rights and voting rights legislation in the 1960s contributed to the shift in voting patterns, with issues of race and redistribution now largely aligning with liberal-conservative divisions.

The lack of moderate candidates running for Congress is a significant factor in legislative polarisation. Running for office has become more expensive and time-consuming, making it less appealing to moderates. As a result, ideological extremes are more prevalent among those seeking political office. Statistical analyses indicate that moderate candidates tend to perform well electorally, but they are often underrepresented due to selection bias and the tendency for more extreme candidates to run in districts that favour their ideologies.

To address legislative polarisation, some have suggested making the role of legislator more appealing to moderate citizens. This includes increasing legislator salaries, reducing the time spent fundraising, and subsidising the campaigns of moderate candidates. By encouraging more moderates to run for office, Congress can become less polarised and potentially improve its functioning, as polarisation is a key reason for the breakdown of the policy process.

The left's refusal to accept Trump's victory

The left's resistance to Trump's presidency was evident from the start, with many refusing to acknowledge the legitimacy of his victory. This sentiment was not limited to protesters but was also propagated by leading Democrats, who advanced various narratives to undermine the election outcome. They attributed the result to factors such as FBI Director James Comey's actions and alleged Russian interference, refusing to concede that Trump had won the election fairly.

The left's denial of Trump's victory contributed to the polarisation of the country, making it difficult for Trump to unite the nation and build the goodwill necessary for a honeymoon period. This resistance manifested in various forms, including public demonstrations and vocal opposition from prominent Democratic figures, who continuously questioned the legitimacy of his presidency.

Additionally, Trump's narrow victory in the Electoral College, coupled with his loss of the popular vote, provided further ammunition for those disputing his mandate. This dynamic was unique compared to previous presidents, who typically enjoyed broader support, or at least a consensus that their victory was legitimate, during the initial phase of their administrations.

The resistance to Trump's victory reflected a deep-seated opposition to his policies, character, and style of governance. It highlighted the stark ideological divide in the country, making it difficult for Trump to unite Americans behind his agenda. This dynamic contributed to the contentious and conflict-ridden nature of his presidency, with opposition emerging from both the streets and the political establishment.

Trump's attention-seeking instincts

Trump's refusal to follow the traditional path of a new president and rally his followers further contributed to the lack of a honeymoon period. Instead, he became a "virtual homebody", which, combined with his attention-seeking instincts, created a sense of chaos and strife.

Trump's aggressive start, marked by his controversial policies and tweets, resulted in a decline in his approval ratings. His approval rating upon taking office reached around 50%, but it soon slipped into the mid-40s, with multiple polls showing a significant drop in support.

Overall, Trump's attention-seeking instincts and hyperactivity on social media, coupled with his controversial policies and failure to rally followers, contributed to a lack of a honeymoon period and a decline in his approval ratings during his presidency.

Trump's policy initiatives

While US presidents typically experience a honeymoon period—a time of popularity and elevated approval ratings in the initial months of their first term—Donald Trump did not. Pundits and news outlets, such as the New York Times, claim that Trump faced conflict and criticism from the moment he took office.

Trump's lack of a honeymoon period can be attributed to several factors, including the unprecedented polarization in the country during his presidency and his slim majority in the House, which resulted in gridlock in Congress.

Despite this, Trump pursued various policy initiatives during his first term. Here are some key areas where he focused his efforts:

Economy and Trade

• Trump's "America First" agenda aimed to protect American businesses and workers. He withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord and took steps to reduce the cost of living.
• He announced the America First Trade Policy, asserting America's independence in national tax policy and rejecting foreign influence that might harm American businesses.
• Trump signed executive orders to make it easier for businesses to offer retirement plans and to increase transparency in federal agencies, protecting Americans and small businesses from administrative abuse.
• He helped community banks by rolling back provisions of Dodd-Frank, which had imposed costly regulations.
• Trump established the National Council for the American Worker and the American Workforce Policy Advisory Board. Over 460 companies signed the Pledge to America's Workers, committing to provide millions of job and training opportunities.
• He signed an executive order directing the federal government to prioritize skills-based hiring over degree-based hiring.

Border Security and Immigration

• Trump took a hardline approach to border security and immigration. He aimed to secure the border and protect American communities by ending catch-and-release policies, reinstating Remain in Mexico, and building a wall.
• He ended asylum for illegal border crossers, cracked down on criminal sanctuaries, and enhanced vetting and screening of aliens.
• Trump's deportation operation addressed the record border crossings of criminal aliens under the previous administration.
• He suspended refugee resettlement, arguing that communities were strained by unsustainable populations of migrants.
• Trump deployed the Armed Forces, including the National Guard, to assist in border security.

Healthcare

• Trump ended the Unapproved Drugs Initiative, which had granted market exclusivity to generic drugs.
• He promoted research and innovation in healthcare to ensure Americans had access to the best treatment.
• Trump signed an executive order affirming the protection of patients with pre-existing conditions.
• He passed the Right To Try legislation, giving terminally ill patients access to experimental treatments.
• Trump signed an executive order to prioritize kidney disease treatment and increase transplants.
• He increased funding for critical research in Alzheimer's and pediatric cancer.
• Trump accelerated breakthroughs in genetic treatments for Sickle Cell disease.

Social Issues

• Trump launched the Foster Youth to Independence initiative to prevent and end homelessness among young adults under 25 in or leaving the foster care system.
• He signed the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act, tightening criteria for countries' efforts to eliminate human trafficking.
• Trump established a task force to address the issue of missing or murdered Native American women and girls.
• He supported anti-abortion initiatives, such as reinstating and expanding the Mexico City Policy, ensuring taxpayer money did not fund abortions globally.
• Trump included women's empowerment in his 2017 National Security Strategy and signed key legislation like the Women, Peace, and Security Act and the Women Entrepreneurship and Economic Empowerment Act.
• He launched the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity (W-GDP) Initiative, a whole-of-government approach to women’s economic empowerment that reached millions of women worldwide.

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